Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 19.943154 23.991884 28.441708 33.667724 39.608682 46.123941 53.779985
2025-10-12 14.309308 19.687338 26.194550 34.524375 44.773241 56.838585 71.973898
2025-10-19 11.041403 16.935527 24.627660 35.133004 48.817078 65.739482 87.920833
2025-10-26 8.968327 15.128934 23.705708 36.060962 52.903685 74.543444 103.868391
2025-11-02 7.068220 13.108670 22.064299 35.630205 54.910559 80.544520 116.313238
2025-11-09 5.780002 11.714192 21.034166 35.796654 57.549537 87.323504 129.896448
2025-11-16 4.693650 10.402428 19.892646 35.582285 59.497617 93.118662 142.269695
2025-11-23 3.705612 9.033681 18.431024 34.655396 60.229367 97.130610 152.237507
2025-11-30 3.219377 8.490762 18.243557 35.666526 63.850665 105.331927 168.277955
2025-12-07 2.604161 7.541508 17.198864 35.133428 64.995482 109.914421 179.274612
2025-12-14 2.204159 6.952360 16.712807 35.461909 67.461990 116.491200 193.308940
2025-12-21 1.677582 5.921767 15.221189 33.857001 66.645629 118.016956 199.923822
2025-12-28 1.469139 5.650586 15.257688 35.110129 70.804212 127.612604 219.298499
2026-01-04 1.251034 5.292516 15.068280 35.938110 74.320855 136.408380 237.874892
2026-01-11 1.054009 4.925893 14.795816 36.562276 77.494154 144.757686 256.015146
2026-01-18 0.907359 4.661000 14.705611 37.519031 81.280266 154.203211 276.103691
2026-01-25 0.714989 4.159263 13.966344 37.074806 82.498709 159.488656 289.842647
2026-02-01 0.584265 3.816731 13.551656 37.246457 84.821688 166.642541 306.692613
2026-02-08 0.463039 3.444559 12.986896 37.025386 86.371604 172.526794 321.652436
2026-02-15 0.344432 3.001916 12.136224 36.069416 86.438594 175.866308 332.576903
2026-02-22 0.297721 2.880340 12.169737 37.112261 90.414343 186.018789 354.806094
2026-03-01 0.225211 2.560487 11.549060 36.562467 91.207511 190.659453 368.108340
2026-03-08 0.182374 2.378781 11.314314 36.901243 93.779252 198.480417 386.837582